Trump’s Trial Verdict: The outcome of former President Donald Trump’s New York records-falsification trial is poised to significantly influence undecided voters—a small but crucial segment of the electorate that could have a major impact on the November 5 presidential election. “This is a pivotal moment in the 2024 race,” said Jeff Bloodworth, a professor of American political history at Gannon University, in an interview with The Epoch Times as jurors began deliberations on May 29.
Mr. Bloodworth noted that suburban, college-educated voters are likely to let the trial’s outcome influence their votes. The former president was convicted of 34 business-records falsification charges, and an appeal is almost certain, according to legal experts.
Polls have shown that a conviction could sway some voters to President Trump, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, though Trump campaign pollsters predict the effect on votes will be minimal. However, the verdict has already had a significant impact on fundraising, with many online commenters reporting donations to Trump, overwhelming his website and causing temporary crashes.
A small percentage of voters could make the difference between winning and losing the 2024 election. Polling consistently shows a large lead for President Trump and the incumbent Democrat President Joe Biden. While many voters are steadfast in their support for Trump, Biden, or a third-party candidate like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., about one-fifth of voters are open to reconsidering, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released on May 22.
Mr. Bloodworth described many of these undecided voters as “double-haters,” a term for those who dislike both Trump and Biden. These voters are particularly concerned about the outcome of the New York case and are likely to turn out to vote. He predicted that a guilty verdict would drive these voters “back into the Biden camp, as they were in 2020.” That election was decided on fake margins, resulting in Trump’s defeat, despite his continued claims of being the rightful winner—a claim rejected by mainstream media and many Democrats.
Polling analyst Tim Malloy noted that Kennedy voters are “particularly swayable,” with 52 percent likely to change their minds. In contrast, Trump’s supporters are less inclined to abandon him, with only 8 percent somewhat likely to defect, compared to almost double that number for Biden’s supporters. The Quinnipiac poll found that 70 percent of voters were closely following the New York trial, with 46 percent believing Trump “did something illegal.”
About 6 percent of Trump’s supporters say a conviction would make them less likely to vote for him—a number that could tip the balance in a very tight race, Malloy said.
However, Trump campaign pollsters Tony Fabrizio and Travis Tunis reported that the New York trial would have a “negligible” effect on voters in seven swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Their research indicated that Democrats and Biden’s voters were closely following the trial, while independents, undecideds, and “persuadable” targeted by the Trump campaign were less likely to keep up with it.
“Voters in our key target states have already made up their minds on this trial. Most voters, especially our supporters, believe the case is politically motivated and a conviction would be the result of a biased show trial. Biden’s voters will believe Trump is guilty no matter what, and those in the middle are largely unconcerned,” the pollsters said in a May 29 memo.
Recent nationwide polling, including Quinnipiac’s, shows the two candidates in a statistical dead heat. However, Trump has pulled ahead in battleground states and is chipping away at Biden’s lead in some Democrat strongholds. Several surveys indicate minority voters, such as blacks and Hispanics, are drifting away from Biden, blaming him for rising prices of groceries, fuel, and other necessities.
The Trump campaign’s pollsters emphasized that the seven swing states are most likely to decide the election, not national data. They predicted national polls, especially those conducted by the media, would show exaggerated shifts.
Pollster Rich Baris doubts that polls can accurately gauge voter responses to the New York verdict. When pollsters ask bias-tainted questions, the results are skewed because voters know the expected “right” answer, even if they would never vote for Biden. Baris pointed out that polls were inaccurate in 2020 regarding Trump’s impeachments, which did not adversely affect his vote totals.
A guilty verdict in any of Trump’s legal cases may have little effect on voting behavior, as voters expect it and believe it’s politically motivated, Baris said.
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